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Financial support from the Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. AbstractThis paper investigates the out-of-sample predictability of international bond risk premia. Recommended articlesView article metricsElsevierAbout ScienceDirectRemote accessShopping cartContact and supportTerms and conditionsPrivacy policyCookies are used by this site.

For more information, visit the cookies page. EconPapers Home About EconPapers Working Papers Journal Articles Books and Chapters Software Components Authors JEL codes New Economics Papers Advanced SearchEconPapers FAQ Archive maintainers FAQ Cookies at EconPapers Format for printing The RePEc blog The RePEc plagiarism page Option-Implied Equity Premium Predictions via Entropic TiltinG Davide Pettenuzzo (Obfuscate( 'brandeis.

We obtain predictive densities from a stae-of-the-art stochastic volatility (SV) model, which we then tilt towards the second moment of the risk-neutral distribution implied by options prices, while imposing a non-negativity constraint on the equity premium. By combining the backward-looking information contained in the SV model with the forward-looking information from options prices, our procedure delivers sharper predictive densities. Using density forecasts of the U.

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Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to Obfuscate( 'oru. EconPapers Home About EconPapers Working Papers Journal Articles Books and Chapters Software Components Authors JEL codes New Economics Papers Advanced Search EconPapers FAQ Archive maintainers FAQ Cookies at EconPapers Format for printing The RePEc blog The RePEc plagiarism page Option-Implied Equity Premium Predictions via Entropic TiltinG Davide Pettenuzzo (Obfuscate( 'brandeis.

Page updated 2017-12-05 Handle: RePEc:brd:wpaper:99r. Economists have suggested a whole range of variables that investors could or should use to predict: dividend price ratios, dividend yields, earnings-price ratios, dividend payout ratios, net issuing ratios, book-market ratios, interest rates (in various guises), and consumption-based macroeconomic ratios (cay).

Most would have outright hurt. Therefore, we find that, for all practical purposes, the equity premium has not been predictable, and any belief about whether the stock market is now too high or too low has to be based on theoretical prior, not on the empirically variables we have explored.

More summaries of NBER Meetings. He is also the Mitsui Professor of Economics at M. Mitch's Best Bets every single day at the lowest prices anywhere. Sign Up if (.